3QUESTION 3 OF 3
Answer & explanation
The official answer, with Fermi’s reasoning step by step.
Answer & explanation
Official answer
2,800,000
surfboards
How to estimate it
Fermi’s official “Napkin math”
Let's make a guess at how many people surf. Loads of people have tried it, but regulars who actually buy boards, maybe 12 million worldwide. How often does one buy a new board? Every few years, call it once every 4.
- Regular surfers
- ~12,000,000
- New board every ~4 yrs
- ÷ 4
- 12M ÷ 4
- ≈ 3,000,000
Rounded assumptions may give a slightly different estimate. The official answer above is the game’s reference value.
Source calculation & reference
- Global surfboard market, 2024
- $2.6 billion
- Average board, all types
- ~$930
- $2.6B ÷ $930
- ≈ 2,800,000
Reference cited by Fermi: Industry Research, Surfing Market report (2.8 million boards sold worldwide in 2024 against a $2.60 billion surfboard segment)
How close was your guess?
Your comparison will appear here.
Compare by ratio: divide the larger number by the smaller one. The closer to 1×, the better.