2QUESTION 2 OF 3
Answer & explanation
The official answer, with Fermi’s reasoning step by step.
Answer & explanation
Official answer
5,970,000,000
dollars
How to estimate it
Fermi’s official “Napkin math”
Bagels are a Western breakfast thing, so call it a billion people who have them in the shops. How many does one of them buy in a year? Maybe five, at about $1.50 a bagel.
- People with bagels in the shops
- 1,000,000,000
- Bagels each per year
- × 5
- Price per bagel
- × $1.50
- 1B × 5 × $1.50
- ≈ $7,500,000,000
Rounded assumptions may give a slightly different estimate. The official answer above is the game’s reference value.
Source calculation & reference
- Cross-check range across market research firms (Grand View Research, Market Data Forecast, Coherent Market Insights), 2025
- $5.82-6.30 billion
- Fortune Business Insights, global bagel market size, 2025
- ≈ $5.97 billion
Reference cited by Fermi: Fortune Business Insights, Bagel Market Size, Share & Industry Report, 2025
How close was your guess?
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Compare by ratio: divide the larger number by the smaller one. The closer to 1×, the better.