All Fermi answers
Fermi #62 · Question 3

How many people live north of the Arctic Circle?

Explore the official answer and the simple reasoning behind this Fermi estimate.

3QUESTION 3 OF 3

Answer & explanation

The official answer, with Fermi’s reasoning step by step.

The Arctic

The Arctic

A map of the Arctic centred on the North Pole, with a red dashed circle drawn around it.

Illustration from Fermi.gg

Answer & explanation

Official answer

1,900,000

people

How to estimate it

Fermi’s official “Napkin math”

Hardly anyone lives up there, and most who do are in Russia. How many? It has real cities past the line, like Murmansk, so call it a million. Northern Norway, Sweden and Finland add maybe half a million, and Greenland, Canada and Alaska only a sliver.

Russia's Arctic
≈ 1,000,000
Northern Scandinavia
+ 500,000
Greenland, Canada, Alaska
+ 50,000
1,000,000 + 500,000 + 50,000
≈ 1,550,000

Rounded assumptions may give a slightly different estimate. The official answer above is the game’s reference value.

Source calculation & reference
People in towns of 500+ north of the Arctic Circle, 2017 (Nordregio)
≈ 1,640,000
Villages under 500 and the countryside (our estimate)
+ 250,000
1,640,000 + 250,000
≈ 1,900,000

Reference cited by Fermi: Nordregio (2018), Arctic settlements of 500+ people in 2017, summed for every town north of the Arctic Circle (66°34'N)

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