3QUESTION 3 OF 3
Answer & explanation
The official answer, with Fermi’s reasoning step by step.
Answer & explanation
Official answer
2,250
people
How to estimate it
Fermi’s official “Napkin math”
Roger Bannister ran the first one in 1954, about 70 years ago. How many new people break it each year? It's elite, but it has been done a lot. Call it 30 a year on average.
- Years since 1954
- ~70
- New sub-4 milers a year
- × 30
- 70 × 30
- ≈ 2,100
Rounded assumptions may give a slightly different estimate. The official answer above is the game’s reference value.
Source calculation & reference
- Men under 4:00 on the World Athletics all-time mile list, September 2026
- 2,253
- Women who have done it
- + 0
- Rounded
- ≈ 2,250
Reference cited by Fermi: World Athletics all-time one mile toplist (men, indoor and outdoor): 2,253 athletes under 4:00 as of September 2026. No woman has broken four minutes.
How close was your guess?
Your comparison will appear here.
Compare by ratio: divide the larger number by the smaller one. The closer to 1×, the better.