All Fermi answers
Fermi #14 · Question 2

How long would it take a goldfish to escape Alcatraz and swim to the shore of San Francisco?

Explore the official answer and the simple reasoning behind this Fermi estimate.

2QUESTION 2 OF 3

Answer & explanation

The official answer, with Fermi’s reasoning step by step.

Answer & explanation

Official answer

75

minutes

How to estimate it

Fermi’s official “Napkin math”

Alcatraz sits about a mile off the San Francisco shore. How fast does a goldfish actually swim? Slowly, maybe 1 mile an hour. So it works out to roughly an hour of paddling.

Distance to shore
~1 mile
Goldfish speed
~1 mph
1 mile ÷ 1 mph
≈ 1 hour

Rounded assumptions may give a slightly different estimate. The official answer above is the game’s reference value.

Source calculation & reference
Alcatraz to SF shore
~1.25 miles
Goldfish cruising speed
~1 mph
1.25 mi ÷ 1 mph
≈ 75 min

Reference cited by Fermi: NPS Alcatraz / goldfish swim speed estimates

How close was your guess?

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Compare by ratio: divide the larger number by the smaller one. The closer to 1×, the better.

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