2QUESTION 2 OF 3
Answer & explanation
The official answer, with Fermi’s reasoning step by step.
Answer & explanation
Official answer
415,000
elephants
How to estimate it
Fermi’s official “Napkin math”
Africa has about 50 countries, and most still have some wild elephants. Call it 35. How many in each? A few have huge herds and plenty have only a handful, so maybe 10,000 on average.
- Countries with elephants
- ~35
- Elephants per country
- × 10,000
- 35 × 10,000
- ≈ 350,000
Rounded assumptions may give a slightly different estimate. The official answer above is the game’s reference value.
Source calculation & reference
- IUCN African Elephant Status Report 2016, surveyed populations (data to end of 2015)
- ≈ 415,000 (± about 20,000)
- Net loss since 2007, mostly to poaching
- ≈ 110,000
- ≈ result
- 415,000 elephants
Reference cited by Fermi: IUCN SSC African Elephant Specialist Group, African Elephant Status Report 2016
How close was your guess?
Your comparison will appear here.
Compare by ratio: divide the larger number by the smaller one. The closer to 1×, the better.